Category Archives: Elections

2014 election results: Moslty bad, some good – what can we learn from it?

Ok, so here are the 2014 general election results (Source: news24.com):

2014 South African general election results

And here are the results again, also showing changes from the 2009 general election (source: wikipedia.org):

2009-2014 South African election change

And now for the good, the bad, and the ugly:

The good:

  1. There are only three parties that increased their voter-share from 2009. The DA, the UDM and the FF+. So the FF+ is one of the only three established growing parties in South Africa. Well done for them. We saw a slight change in voter sentiment towards the FF+ in opinion polling before the election, and I mentioned that it will be great if they can somehow keep the momentum going. It seems they have. Not only have they increased their share of the vote since 2009, they almost doubled in their vote-share from the 2011 municipal elections. So on the books, they will have to be considered the conservative’s strong suit in South Africa at the moment.
  2. Even though the ACDP lost a considerable (proportionate) part of their voter share, they still managed to retain their three seats in parliament. So on the books, the loss will not be felt. But if they don’t tidy this up soon, they might end up fading from existence come next election.
  3. The ANC has lost 3.75% of its support since 2009, and did not make the dreaded two thirds majority required to change the constitution. Any loss for the ANC can be considered good for South Africa at this stage.

The bad:

  1. The combined conservative vote has decreased a lot. From very small to minute. The IFP lost half it’s support, the UCDP has disappeared and lost their seat in parliament, and the ACDP is shrinking. The conservatives lost a combined 10 seats in parliament (roughly 2.5%).
  2. The EFF has exceeded all expectations, and are sitting comfortably on 6.35%. They have more than a million votes and 25 seats. This extremist far-left party can only be bad for South Africa. They are going to be a thorn in the flesh in parliament, and unfortunately, might spur the other lefties in parliament on to become more extreme.

The ugly:

  1. Compared to 2009, the ANC has shrunk, and the DA has grown. But if you compare it to the 2011 municipal elections, you will see that not much has changed. The ANC has stopped shrinking for the most part. Even though more than 50% of South Africans don’t trust our president (according to opinion polling), still more than 60% vote for the ANC. This just shows that democracy is failing in South Africa. The opinion polling last year led us to believe that finally after 20 years, the people were ready to move on, but unfortunately it seems like that time has not yet come. We have 5 more years to go until our next reality check. Let’s hope for the best.
  2. Everyone thought that the EFF will steal a chunk of the ANC vote, but it seems like they are actually stealing the opposition vote, so this does not help South Africa at all. At this stage we should hope that the EFF goes the way of COPE, even though they had 7% of the vote in 2009, internal politics ripped the party apart, and now they have less than 1%. Will the EFF follow suit?

Some thoughts:

To all the conservative parties still alive I would ask this:

Is now not the time for a merger?

We lost one of the conservative parties in this election, who will follow next? I still hold to the idea that the conservatives will be stronger together than alone. All the conservative parties are shrinking, or barely growing. We have well known, respected leaders in the parties, that people look up to. If they were to combine forces, and stand together, will they not be seen as a more credible opponent? If we have Kenneth Meshoe, Mangosuthu Buthelezi and Pieter Mulder on the same poster, will that not spurt voter confidence? If we can move away from the “Christian party”, the “Zulu party” and the “Afrikaner party”, and have just the Conservative party? Honestly I don’t know the answer to that question, and would like to hear some of your thoughts on it?

Other than that, I would say this to all party members of the above-mentioned:

Put away your champagne glasses (or tissues). 2014 elections have passed, and 2016 municipal elections have began. Start working for your votes today! At this stage in our history, resting is a convenience that the conservative voice does not have.

I dare not fall into despair at this stage, in spite of the results. The conservatives are squashed, but we’re still here. The voters are still here, still looking for someone to convince them that the conservative parties deserve their votes. So come on IFP, FF+ and ACDP, make it happen.

 

 

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2014 Pre-election polls: As it stands

There is a very interesting poll done by Ipsos, called the pulse of the people. At the end of 2013, they did a very intensive poll on 3564 people, representing the demographics of South Africa. Pretty much asking them, who will you vote for? The results are quite fascinating, and makes for some interesting predictions. In this post I will be focusing on voting for provincial legislature, according to the stats, because the national stats aren’t in-depth enough to show changes. My focus will be on the leading parties and conservative parties.

I made a table of comparison, comparing 2009 provincial, 2011 municipal, and 2014 polling data. The 2009 and 2011 data comes straight from elections.org.za, they are official stats, but the 2014 stats come from the only decent public political poll we have at this stage. I added the municipal results only in the final column and not per-province, because I want everything to fit on one screen: Click on the image below to see enlarged results.

2014 South African election polls
THE VERDICT:

Winners:

  1. ACDP : The ACDP has slipped in support from 2009 to 2011. But they made such a big comeback since 2011 that they almost doubled their support since 2009. Their support level is now almost level with both AGANG and the IFP. The ACDP is also now the only growing conservative party in South Africa.  Is the ACDP going to be the conservative’s last stand?
  2. EFF : You can say what you want about the man, but Julius Malema has a way of getting a crowd riled up. After launching their brand new party last year, the EFF is already sitting on 5.32% of the vote, officially becoming the third largest party in South Africa in their entry year. Time will tell if they will last, or fade like previous ANC break-aways. But one thing is certain, if their leadership isn’t in jail come May, then they will be in our Parliament, and the official opposition in Limpopo and North West.

Losers:

  1. ANC : The ANC is down 9.2% since 2009. This might be the first provincial election in which their near-two-thirds majority start crumbling. Their still winning for now, but I believe in 2016 municipal election we will start seeing their municipalities slip from their grasp, and 2019… who knows? A coalition of opposition parties govern South Africa? One can only speculate.
  2. DA: You will never hear it from the media or from the DA themselves, but the figures show: The DA has lost support since 2011. This make the fact that the DA is proclaiming they will have 30% of the national vote quite laughable. The DA might have hit their support limit, and might never reach the 30% they proclaim. In my opinion, a small minority of people vote for the DA because they want to, but the majority of their voters think they are the only option (if that’s you, read my previous post).
  3. COPE: Election after election these guys keep slipping in support. They were never able to show a unified front and leadership, and might have been the cause for their own demise.
  4. AGANG : They came in with a bang, with (apparently) heaps of funding, and even an election campaign coordinator from one of the previous victorious American presidents. A year later, they are bankrupt, married and divorced to the DA, and no-one sees them as a viable option any more. What could have been never was. I don’t see them contending the next general election. They will probably be swallowed by the DA (again) in the end.
  5. IFP : The IFP has never grown in support in any election. Unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that they can make a comeback.
  6. FF+ : They slipped to near-extinction in 2011, but it seems like they might have gained back some of that vote. Unfortunately, they still sit on less support than in 2009, so their outlook is still bleak. Here’s hoping they can keep that little momentum into the election.
  7. UCDP : Slipped to the place where they will not be a party anymore in the next general election.

Conclusion:

The ANC is slipping, and one more term of president Jacob Zuma can see them slip the whole nine yards. But the DA is not growing enough to take their place. Instead, it seems like either another party will grow to become the opposition/leader, or in the end South Africa will be governed by a majority of minorities.

The Northern Cape and Gauteng are up for grabs. No jokes, We might see the DA in control of 3 out of the 9 provinces this year.

References:
http://www.ipsos.co.za/SitePages/PROVINCIAL%20political%20party%20support%20in%20a%20moderate%20voter%20turnout%20scenario.aspx
http://elections.org.za

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