Monthly Archives: February 2014

2014 Pre-election polls: As it stands

There is a very interesting poll done by Ipsos, called the pulse of the people. At the end of 2013, they did a very intensive poll on 3564 people, representing the demographics of South Africa. Pretty much asking them, who will you vote for? The results are quite fascinating, and makes for some interesting predictions. In this post I will be focusing on voting for provincial legislature, according to the stats, because the national stats aren’t in-depth enough to show changes. My focus will be on the leading parties and conservative parties.

I made a table of comparison, comparing 2009 provincial, 2011 municipal, and 2014 polling data. The 2009 and 2011 data comes straight from elections.org.za, they are official stats, but the 2014 stats come from the only decent public political poll we have at this stage. I added the municipal results only in the final column and not per-province, because I want everything to fit on one screen: Click on the image below to see enlarged results.

2014 South African election polls
THE VERDICT:

Winners:

  1. ACDP : The ACDP has slipped in support from 2009 to 2011. But they made such a big comeback since 2011 that they almost doubled their support since 2009. Their support level is now almost level with both AGANG and the IFP. The ACDP is also now the only growing conservative party in South Africa.  Is the ACDP going to be the conservative’s last stand?
  2. EFF : You can say what you want about the man, but Julius Malema has a way of getting a crowd riled up. After launching their brand new party last year, the EFF is already sitting on 5.32% of the vote, officially becoming the third largest party in South Africa in their entry year. Time will tell if they will last, or fade like previous ANC break-aways. But one thing is certain, if their leadership isn’t in jail come May, then they will be in our Parliament, and the official opposition in Limpopo and North West.

Losers:

  1. ANC : The ANC is down 9.2% since 2009. This might be the first provincial election in which their near-two-thirds majority start crumbling. Their still winning for now, but I believe in 2016 municipal election we will start seeing their municipalities slip from their grasp, and 2019… who knows? A coalition of opposition parties govern South Africa? One can only speculate.
  2. DA: You will never hear it from the media or from the DA themselves, but the figures show: The DA has lost support since 2011. This make the fact that the DA is proclaiming they will have 30% of the national vote quite laughable. The DA might have hit their support limit, and might never reach the 30% they proclaim. In my opinion, a small minority of people vote for the DA because they want to, but the majority of their voters think they are the only option (if that’s you, read my previous post).
  3. COPE: Election after election these guys keep slipping in support. They were never able to show a unified front and leadership, and might have been the cause for their own demise.
  4. AGANG : They came in with a bang, with (apparently) heaps of funding, and even an election campaign coordinator from one of the previous victorious American presidents. A year later, they are bankrupt, married and divorced to the DA, and no-one sees them as a viable option any more. What could have been never was. I don’t see them contending the next general election. They will probably be swallowed by the DA (again) in the end.
  5. IFP : The IFP has never grown in support in any election. Unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that they can make a comeback.
  6. FF+ : They slipped to near-extinction in 2011, but it seems like they might have gained back some of that vote. Unfortunately, they still sit on less support than in 2009, so their outlook is still bleak. Here’s hoping they can keep that little momentum into the election.
  7. UCDP : Slipped to the place where they will not be a party anymore in the next general election.

Conclusion:

The ANC is slipping, and one more term of president Jacob Zuma can see them slip the whole nine yards. But the DA is not growing enough to take their place. Instead, it seems like either another party will grow to become the opposition/leader, or in the end South Africa will be governed by a majority of minorities.

The Northern Cape and Gauteng are up for grabs. No jokes, We might see the DA in control of 3 out of the 9 provinces this year.

References:
http://www.ipsos.co.za/SitePages/PROVINCIAL%20political%20party%20support%20in%20a%20moderate%20voter%20turnout%20scenario.aspx
http://elections.org.za

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